Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to November 2018 – WBMS

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to November was a deficit of 561.6 kt which follows a deficit of 1210 kt recorded for the whole of 2017. Chinese trade data is now available up to November 2018. Demand for primary aluminium for January to November 2018 was 54.918 million tonnes 6 kt more than in the same eleven months of 2017. Production in January to November 2018 rose by 675 kt compared with the same period in 2017. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 104 kt during November and closed at the end of the month 102 kt below the December 2017 level. Total LME stocks rose fractionally during November but stocks in Malaysia rose by 53 kt but other stocks in Asia declined. Total stocks at the end of November 2018 were 2244 kt which compares with 2346 kt at the end of 2017. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 1786 kt at the end of November 2018 which were 157 kt lower than in December 2017 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia. Overall, global production rose in January to November 2018 by 1.3 per cent compared with the first eleven months of 2017. Chinese output was estimated at 31448 kt and this currently accounts for 58 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 6.6 per cent higher than in January to November 2017. Chinese net exports of unwrought aluminium were 341 kt during January to November 2018 which compares with 335 kt in the comparable period in 2017. January to November 2018 net exports of aluminium semi manufactures were 4252 kt which compares with 3486 kt for the first eleven months of 2017.  Production in the EU28 was 0.2 per cent lower than the previous year and NAFTA output fell by 3.8 per cent. EU28 demand was 147 kt higher than the comparable 2017 total. Global demand was virtually unchanged during January to November 2018 compared with the levels recorded one year previously. In November 2018, primary aluminium production was 4989.0 kt and consumption was 5019.9 kt.